Each sex, brand new record price try described playing with area, logarithm regarding hit many years split up by the 70, and you can piecewise quadratic features of age at exposure joining effortlessly within age 29 and fifty
The overall technique for it research were to fit activities similar to those with in past times already been placed on solid tumor incidence (1) and you will leukemia death (23), and you may take to if the record and you can/or light-relevant too much risk elements of those people patterns differed anywhere between first and you will 2nd malignant tumors. Person-ages (PY) on the line and you can counts of very first and you can 2nd primary cancers instances were mix-categorized from the following the parameters: estimated radiation dosages into the colon and you may marrow (21 classes for each and every: 0–4, 5–twenty-four, 25–forty-two, 50–74, 75–99, 100–124, 125–149, 150–174, 175–199, 200–249, 250–299, 300–499, 500–749, 750–999, step one,000–step one,249, step 1,250–step 1,499, step one,500–step one,749, step one,750–1,999, 2,000–2,499, dos,500–dos,999, and you will ?3,100000 mGy), town (c = ?1/2 getting Hiroshima, +1/dos to have Nagasaki), gender (s = ?1/dos for men, +1/dos for ladies), age at the time of the new bombing (fifteen classes: 0–4, 5–nine, …, 65–69, ?70), hit many years (17 categories: 5–9, 10–14, …, 80–84, ?85), diary go out (10 groups: 1958–1960, 1961–1965, …, 1991–1996, and you may 1997–2002), follow-upwards several months (P = several having prior to earliest no. 1 malignant tumors medical diagnosis otherwise >180 days once first analysis, respectively), and you can go after-right up time (9 groups: 0–cuatro, 5–9, …, 35–39, and ?forty years forever of your go after-right up months). At exactly the same time, the newest follow-right up period to own 2nd disease was after that get across-tabulated by the many years in the beginning cancer medical diagnosis (fifteen categories: 0–4, 5–9, …, 65–69, ?70) and you will, for analyses regarding second no. 1 disease following certain basic cancers models, by the kind of very first cancer tumors (stomach, lung, anus, the liver, nipple, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, leukemia, thyroid gland, kidney, and other). Each of them structure, the brand new variety of number 1 disease various versions was indeed computed, in addition to the imply opinions of projected colon and you will marrow doses (generically denoted d), age in the course of the latest bombing (e), hit many years (a), follow-up big date (t) and, toward 2nd cancer realize-right up several months, imply many years to start with analysis (f) and mean-time as the basic medical diagnosis (m).
Records prices to possess good cancers were modeled given that sex-specific parametric features off area, reached many years, and you will ages at the coverage (equal to delivery cohort)
Poisson regression analysis was used to estimate and compare the radiation dose-responses for first and second primary cancers. The number of cases for a given cancer type was assumed to be a Poisson variate with mean ?d,c,s,a,elizabeth,t,p,f,meters = PYd,c,s,an effective,e,t,p,f,meters ? d,c,s,an excellent,elizabeth,t,p,f,yards, where PY denotes person years (PY) at risk and ? the incidence rate. Risk was represented by linear excess relative risk (ERR) models of the form ? d , c , s , a , e , t , p , f , m = ? 0 ( c , s , a , e , t , p , f , m ) [ 1 + E ? R ? R ( d , c , s , a , e , t , p , f , m ) ] or excess additive feabie risk (EAR) models of the form ? d , c , s , a , e , t , p , f , m = ? 0 ( c , s , a , e , t , p , f , m ) + E ? R ? R ( d , c , s , a , e , t , p , f , m ) where ?0(.) is the background cancer incidence rate for subjects with zero dose, and ERR(.) and EAR(.) are the ERR and EAR associated with dose d.
Analyses of solid cancer incidence were based primarily on linear ERR models, although EAR models were also fit. A smooth piecewise quadratic function with knots at e1 and e2 can be written as Q(e) = ?1e + ?2e 2 + ?3max(e ? e1,0) 2 + ?3max(e ? e2,0) 2 . To compare first and second primary cancers, coefficients of the terms in the background model were allowed to differ according to follow-up period, and an additional term was included for age at diagnosis of first primary cancer (centered at age 55). The general model for background incidence rates in the analysis of all solid tumors was therefore ? 0 ( c , s , a , e , p , f ) = exp [ ? s , p + ? c , s , p c + ? a , s , p ln ( a / 70 ) + Q s , p ( e ) + ? f , s , p I ( P = 3 ) ( f ? 55 ) ] where I(.) is the indicator function and Qs,p(.) denotes different piecewise quadratic functions for each (s,p). Analyses of specific solid tumors such as stomach or lung cancer were based on smaller numbers of cases, especially for second primary cancers; therefore, these analyses used a simpler background model in which the effect of age at exposure was represented by terms of the form ?age,s,pln(e/30) rather than the piecewise quadratic terms Qs,p(e). Differences in background rates of first and second prieter values for p = 1 and p = 2.
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